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Kurisaka, Kenichi
Proceedings of 30th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE30) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2023/05
This study aims to understand a time trend of the occurrence rate of steam generator (SG) tube leak in the existing sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) based on the observed data. The target on SFRs in the present paper is Phenix in France and BN600 in Russia. From the open literature review, we investigated the number of tube-to-tube plate weld, the number of tube-to-tube weld, heat transfer area of tube base metal, operating time of SGs, dates when SG tube leak occurred, leaked location, corrective action after tube leak such as replacement of leaked module. Based on these observed data, time to leak is estimated and then time trend of the occurrence rate of SG tube leak for each of the above-mentioned parts was quantitatively analyzed by the hazard plotting method. As a result, the rate of leak at tube-to-tube weld in Phenix shows increase with time due to probable cause of cyclic thermal stress in a short term. As for a long-term trend, the rate of tube leak in both Phenix and BN600 SGs indicated decrease with time probably thanks to improvement in welding and in SG operating condition and to removal of initial failure.
Li, C.-Y.; Watanabe, Akira*; Uchibori, Akihiro; Okano, Yasushi
Proceedings of 30th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE30) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2023/05
Li, C.-Y.; Watanabe, Akira*; Uchibori, Akihiro; Okano, Yasushi
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 23 Pages, 2023/00
Times Cited Count：1 Percentile：72.91(Nuclear Science & Technology)Li, C.-Y.; Watanabe, Akira*; Uchibori, Akihiro; Okano, Yasushi
Dai-26-Kai Doryoku, Enerugi Gijutsu Shimpojiumu Koen Rombunshu (Internet), 4 Pages, 2022/07
Identifying accident scenarios that could lead to severe accidents and evaluating their frequency of occurrence are essential issues. This study aims to establish the methodology of the dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for sodium-cooled fast reactors that can consider the time dependency and the interdependence of each event. Specifically, the Continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method is newly applied to the SPECTRA code, which analyzes the severe accident conditions of nuclear reactors, to develop an evaluation methodology for typical external hazards. Currently, a fault-tree model of air coolers of decay heat removal system is implemented as the CMMC method, and a series of preliminary analysis of the plant's transient characteristics under the scenario of volcanic ashfall has been conducted.
Yamamoto, Tomohiko; Kato, Atsushi; Chikazawa, Yoshitaka; Hara, Hiroyuki*
Nuclear Technology, 206(12), p.1875 - 1890, 2020/12
Times Cited Count：0 Percentile：0.01(Nuclear Science & Technology)This paper gives a detailed evaluation of the countermeasures for the external hazards and severe accidents that could impact the 2010 JSFR design building by lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (Fukushima I NPP) accident.
Nishino, Hiroyuki; Yamano, Hidemasa; Kurisaka, Kenichi
Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 5(4), p.18-00079_1 - 18-00079_17, 2018/08
Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*
Geosciences (Internet), 8(1), p.1_1 - 1_22, 2018/01
After the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, we observed that aftershocks tended to occur in a wide region after such a large earthquake. These aftershocks resulted in secondary damage or delayed rescue and recovery activities. However, it is difficult to evaluate the hazards of an aftershock before the main shock due to various uncertainties. For possible great earthquakes, we must make decisions based on such uncertainties, and it is important to quantify the various uncertainties. We previously proposed a probabilistic aftershock occurrence model that is expected to be useful to develop plans for recovery activities after future large earthquakes. In this paper, engineering applications of the proposed approach for probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis are shown for demonstration purposes. One application is to use aftershock hazard maps to plan recovery activities. Another application is to derive load combination equations of the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) considering the simultaneous occurrence of tsunamis and aftershocks for the tsunami-resistant design of tsunami evacuation buildings and nuclear facilities.
Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 4(3), p.16-00517_1 - 16-00517_10, 2017/06
A sensitivity study on forest fire hazard curves was performed. The probability fluctuation on forest fire breakout time affects the reaction intensity and the fireline intensity around 4% and 14% respectively. The probability fluctuation on forest fire breakout points affects the hazard curve frequency around +70% to -40%. The probability fluctuation due to forest firefighting operation only affects the frequency of the hazard curves, but not the intensity. The hazard curves without the effect of firefighting remarkably increase around 40 to 80 times in frequency in comparison with those with considering the forest firefighting operation effect outside the plant. This study indicated that the most significant factor in the forest fire hazard risk is whether the forest firefighting operation outside the plant is expected before the forest fire arrival at the plant.
Takata, Takashi; Azuma, Emiko*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 53(11), p.1749 - 1757, 2016/11
Times Cited Count：5 Percentile：43.41(Nuclear Science & Technology)Margin assessment of a nuclear power plant against external hazards is one of the most important issues after Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident. In this paper, a new approach has been developed to assess the plant status during external hazards and countermeasures against them in operation quantitatively and stochastically. A Continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method is applied and coupled with a plant dynamics analysis. In the CMMC method, a subsequence plant status is determined by the latest state (Markov chain) and the status is evaluated from the plant dynamics analysis. A failure or success of safety function of plant component is also evaluated stochastically based on a latest state of plant or hazard. A numerical investigation of plant dynamics analysis against a snow hazard is also carried out in a loop type sodium cooled fast reactor so as to assess the margin against the hazard.
Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi
Nuclear Engineering and Design, 308, p.86 - 95, 2016/11
Times Cited Count：7 Percentile：55.03(Nuclear Science & Technology)This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10
/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1-2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5-0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution to secure the access routes.
Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 53(8), p.1224 - 1234, 2016/08
Times Cited Count：4 Percentile：36.53(Nuclear Science & Technology)A method to obtain a hazard curve of a forest fire was developed. The method has four steps: a logic tree formulation, a response surface evaluation, a Monte Carlo simulation, and an annual exceedance frequency calculation. The logic tree consists domains of forest fire breakout and spread conditions, weather conditions, vegetation conditions, and forest fire simulation conditions. The new method was applied to evaluate hazard curves of a reaction intensity and a fireline intensity for a typical location around a sodium-cooled fast reactor in Japan.
Chikazawa, Yoshitaka; Kato, Atsushi; Hayafune, Hiroki; Shimakawa, Yoshio*; Kamishima, Yoshio*
Nuclear Technology, 192(2), p.111 - 124, 2015/11
Times Cited Count：1 Percentile：9.74(Nuclear Science & Technology)Evaluation of severe external hazards on JSFR has been analyzed. For seismic design, safety components are confirmed to maintain their functions even against recent strong earthquakes. For tsunam, hypothetical station blackout has been evaluated.
Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.
Proceedings of 2015 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP 2015) (CD-ROM), p.454 - 465, 2015/05
This paper describes mainly strong wind PRA methodology development in addition to the project overview. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or outtake in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6
10
/year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system.
Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.
Proceedings of 23rd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-23) (DVD-ROM), 10 Pages, 2015/05
This paper describes mainly snow margin assessment methodology development in addition to the project overview. For the snow margin assessment, the index is a combination of a snowfall rate and duration. Since snow removal can be expected during the snowfall, the developed snow margin assessment methodology is such that the margin was regarded as the snowfall duration up to the decay heat removal failure which was defined as when the snow removal rate was smaller than the snowfall rate.
Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Proceedings of 23rd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-23) (DVD-ROM), 9 Pages, 2015/05
Numerical simulations of forest fire propagation and smoke transport were performed with sensibility studies to weather conditions, and the effect by the smoke on the air filter was quantitatively evaluated. Forest fire propagation simulations were performed using FARSITE code. A temporal increase of a forest fire spread area, a position of the frontal fireline, "reaction intensity" and "frontal fireline intensity" are obtained and used for the smoke transport simulations by ALOFT-FT where spatial distribution of PM2.5 and PM10 are evaluated. The total amount of particle matter at the air filter at the nuclear power plant is around several hundred grams per m
which is well below the operational limit of the air filter of 15 kg/m.
Okano, Fuminori; Ikeda, Yoshitaka; Sakasai, Akira; Hanada, Masaya; JT-60 Team
Purazuma, Kaku Yugo Gakkai-Shi, 90(10), p.630 - 639, 2014/10
JT-60 tokamak device, as a largest nuclear fusion device in the world, started the experiments since 1985 and had accomplished the research and development of plasma performance toward the DEMO. The project has successfully completed it operation in August 2008 with many results such as accomplishment of break-even plasma condition in 1996. This disassembly was required for JT-60SA project, which is the Satellite Tokamak project under Japan-EU international corroboration to modify the JT-60 to the superconducting tokamak. This work was the first experience of disassembling a large radioactive fusion device based on Radiation Hazard Prevention Act in Japan. This report presents the outline of disassembly of JT-60 tokamak device.
Sugino, Hideharu*; Ito, Hiroto*; Onizawa, Kunio; Suzuki, Masahide
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai Wabun Rombunshi, 4(4), p.233 - 241, 2005/12
The purpose of this research is to establish the reliability evaluation method of aged nuclear power components for seismic events from a viewpoint of long-term use of the existing light water reactor nuclear power plants. For this purpose, we developed a piping failure probability evaluation code "PASCAL-SC" based on probabilistic fracture mechanics, and a probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation code "SHEAT-FM" for calculating the seismic occurrence probability of a plant site, paying attention to aging such as fatigue crack progress by the stress corrosion cracking and seismic load in primary coolant piping system. We proposed the reliability evaluation method of aged piping for seismic events by combination of these codes. Using this method, we evaluated the reliability of a weld line in the PLR(Primary Loop Recirculation system) piping of the BWR model plant for seismic events.
Tamaki, Hitoshi; Hamaguchi, Yoshikane; Yoshida, Kazuo; Muramatsu, Ken
Proceedings of International Conference on Nuclear Energy System for Future Generation and Global Sustainability (GLOBAL 2005) (CD-ROM), 6 Pages, 2005/10
A PSA procedure for MOX fuel fabrication facilities is being developed at the JAERI. This procedure consists of four steps, which are hazard analysis, accident scenario analysis, frequency evaluation and consequence evaluation. The proposed procedure is characterized by the hazard analysis step. The Hazard analysis step consists of two sub-steps. In the first sub-step, a variety of functions of equipment composing the facility are analyzed to identify potential abnormal events exhaustively. In the second sub-step, these potential events are screened to select abnormal events by using a risk matrix based on the rough estimation of likelihood and maximum unmitigated release of radioactive material. One of the unique technical issues in this research is the estimation of likelihood of criticality event. A method is also proposed as a part of PSA procedure taking into consideration of failure of a computerized control system for MOX powder handling process. The applicability of the PSA procedure was demonstrated through the trial application of it to a model plant of MOX fuel fabrication facility.
Tamaki, Hitoshi; Yoshida, Kazuo; Watanabe, Norio; Muramatsu, Ken
Proceedings of International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA '05) (CD-ROM), 11 Pages, 2005/00
A probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) procedure for Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel fabrication facilities is being developed applicable to nuclear facilities at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI). As part of the PSA procedure, the approach to hazard analysis was established, which consists of two analysis steps: Functional Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (Functional FMEA) and Risk Matrix Analysis. In the Functional FMEA, a variety of functions of equipment composing the facility are analyzed to identify potential abnormal events exhaustively. In the second step, these potential events are screened to select abnormal events as candidate events to be analyzed for frequency and consequence by using two-dimensional matrix based on the rough estimation of likelihood and maximum unmitigated release of radioactive material. The applicability of the hazard analysis approach established was demonstrated through the trial application of the PSA procedure being developed to model plant of MOX fuel fabrication facility.
Uchiyama, Tomoaki; Oikawa, Tetsukuni; Kondo, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yuichi*; Tamura, Kazuo*
JAERI-Data/Code 2002-011, 205 Pages, 2002/03
JAERI-Data-Code-2002-011.pdf:8.52MB
This report is a user's manual of seismic system reliability analysis code SECOM2 developed at the JAERI for system reliability analysis, which is one of the tasks of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The SECOM2 code has many functions such as calculation of component and system failure probabilities for given seismic motion levels at the site of an NPP based on the response factor method, calculation of accident sequence frequencies and the core damage frequency (CDF), importance analysis using various indicators, uncertainty analysis, and calculation of the CDF taking into account the effect of the correlations of responses and capacities of components. These analyses require the fault tree (FT) representing the occurrence condition of the system failures and core damage, information about responses and capacities of the components which compose the FT, and seismic hazard curve for the NPP site as input. This report presents calculation method used in the SECOM2 code and how to use those functions in the SECOM2 code.
